A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
